Csgo Case Calculator

CS:GO Case Expected Value Calculator

Item Drop Chances & Average Values:

Rarity

Chance (%)

Avg. Value ($)

★ Rare Special Item (Knife/Gloves)

Covert (Red)

Classified (Pink)

Restricted (Purple)

Mil-Spec (Blue)

function calculateCSGOCase() { var numCases = parseFloat(document.getElementById('numCases').value); var caseCost = parseFloat(document.getElementById('caseCost').value); var keyCost = parseFloat(document.getElementById('keyCost').value); var marketFee = parseFloat(document.getElementById('marketFee').value) / 100; var knifeChance = parseFloat(document.getElementById('knifeChance').value) / 100; var redChance = parseFloat(document.getElementById('redChance').value) / 100; var pinkChance = parseFloat(document.getElementById('pinkChance').value) / 100; var purpleChance = parseFloat(document.getElementById('purpleChance').value) / 100; var blueChance = parseFloat(document.getElementById('blueChance').value) / 100; var avgKnifeValue = parseFloat(document.getElementById('avgKnifeValue').value); var avgRedValue = parseFloat(document.getElementById('avgRedValue').value); var avgPinkValue = parseFloat(document.getElementById('avgPinkValue').value); var avgPurpleValue = parseFloat(document.getElementById('avgPurpleValue').value); var avgBlueValue = parseFloat(document.getElementById('avgBlueValue').value); // Validate inputs if (isNaN(numCases) || numCases <= 0) { alert("Please enter a valid number of cases (must be greater than 0)."); return; } if (isNaN(caseCost) || caseCost < 0) { alert("Please enter a valid case cost (cannot be negative)."); return; } if (isNaN(keyCost) || keyCost < 0) { alert("Please enter a valid key cost (cannot be negative)."); return; } if (isNaN(marketFee) || marketFee 1) { alert("Please enter a valid market fee percentage (0-100)."); return; } // Validate chances and values var chances = [knifeChance, redChance, pinkChance, purpleChance, blueChance]; var values = [avgKnifeValue, avgRedValue, avgPinkValue, avgPurpleValue, avgBlueValue]; for (var i = 0; i < chances.length; i++) { if (isNaN(chances[i]) || chances[i] 1) { alert("Please enter valid chance percentages (0-100) for all rarities."); return; } if (isNaN(values[i]) || values[i] < 0) { alert("Please enter valid average values (cannot be negative) for all rarities."); return; } } // Calculate Total Cost var totalCost = (caseCost + keyCost) * numCases; // Calculate Expected Value per Case (Gross) var expectedValuePerCase = (knifeChance * avgKnifeValue) + (redChance * avgRedValue) + (pinkChance * avgPinkValue) + (purpleChance * avgPurpleValue) + (blueChance * avgBlueValue); // Calculate Total Expected Gross Return var totalExpectedGrossReturn = expectedValuePerCase * numCases; // Calculate Total Expected Net Return (after market fees) var totalExpectedNetReturn = totalExpectedGrossReturn * (1 – marketFee); // Calculate Expected Profit/Loss var expectedProfitLoss = totalExpectedNetReturn – totalCost; // Display results document.getElementById('totalCostResult').innerText = '$' + totalCost.toFixed(2); document.getElementById('grossReturnResult').innerText = '$' + totalExpectedGrossReturn.toFixed(2); document.getElementById('netReturnResult').innerText = '$' + totalExpectedNetReturn.toFixed(2); var profitLossElement = document.getElementById('profitLossResult'); profitLossElement.innerText = '$' + expectedProfitLoss.toFixed(2); if (expectedProfitLoss 0) { profitLossElement.style.color = '#2e7d32'; // Green for profit } else { profitLossElement.style.color = '#333'; // Black for break-even } } // Run calculation on page load with default values window.onload = calculateCSGOCase;

Understanding the CS:GO Case Expected Value Calculator

Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) features a popular in-game economy centered around weapon skins, knives, and gloves, often acquired by opening "cases." These cases require a specific key to unlock, both of which typically cost real money. The thrill of potentially unboxing a rare and valuable item drives many players to open cases, but what are the actual odds and financial implications?

How CS:GO Cases Work

When you open a CS:GO case, you receive one random item from a predefined pool. These items are categorized by rarity, which directly correlates with their drop chance and generally, their market value. The rarities, from most common to rarest, are:

• Mil-Spec (Blue): Most common, lowest value.
• Restricted (Purple): Less common, moderate value.
• Classified (Pink): Rare, higher value.
• Covert (Red): Very rare, significant value.
• ★ Rare Special Item (Gold/Yellow): Extremely rare, includes knives and gloves, often the most valuable items in the game.

Each case also has a small chance to drop a StatTrak™ version of an item, which tracks kills, or a "Factory New" condition, both of which can significantly increase an item's market price. However, for simplicity, this calculator uses average values.

The Concept of Expected Value

The Expected Value (EV) is a long-term average of the outcome of a random event. In the context of CS:GO cases, it's the average amount of money you can expect to get back per case opened, considering the probabilities of dropping each item and their average market prices. It's calculated as the sum of (probability of an item * value of that item) for all possible items.

Our calculator takes into account the cost of the case itself, the key required to open it, and the Steam Market transaction fee (typically 15%) that is deducted when you sell an item. This allows you to see the true expected profit or loss after all expenses.

Inputs Explained:

• Number of Cases to Open: How many cases you plan to open. The more cases, the closer your actual returns are likely to be to the expected value.
• Cost Per Case ($): The current market price of the specific case you're interested in. This can vary greatly.
• Cost Per Key ($): The fixed price of a CS:GO key, usually around $2.50 USD.
• Steam Market Fee (%): The percentage Valve takes from each item sale. Default is 15%.
• Item Drop Chances (%): These are the community-accepted probabilities for each rarity tier. While Valve doesn't officially publish these, extensive data analysis by the community has established these rates as highly accurate.
• Avg. Value ($): The average market price for items of that rarity from the specific case you are analyzing. This is crucial and requires research on your part. You can check sites like CSGOFloat, Skinport, or Steam Community Market for current prices. Remember to factor in different wear conditions (Factory New, Minimal Wear, etc.) and StatTrak™ versions when estimating an average.

Interpreting the Results:

• Total Cost: The total amount you'd spend on cases and keys.
• Expected Gross Return: The total value of items you'd expect to unbox, before any market fees.
• Expected Net Return (After Fees): The total value you'd expect to receive in your Steam Wallet after selling all items and paying the market fee.
• Expected Profit/Loss: The difference between your Expected Net Return and your Total Cost. A negative number indicates an expected loss, which is common when opening CS:GO cases.

Realistic Example: Opening 100 Cases

Let's use the default values in the calculator as a realistic scenario:

• Number of Cases: 100
• Case Cost: $0.05
• Key Cost: $2.50
• Market Fee: 15%
• Chances & Avg. Values: (as per calculator defaults)

Based on these inputs, the calculator would show:

• Total Cost: (0.05 + 2.50) * 100 = $255.00
• Expected Gross Return per Case: Approximately $0.79 (calculated from chances * avg. values)
• Total Expected Gross Return: $0.79 * 100 = $79.00
• Total Expected Net Return (After Fees): $79.00 * (1 – 0.15) = $67.15
• Expected Profit/Loss: $67.15 – $255.00 = -$187.85

This example clearly illustrates that, on average, opening CS:GO cases is a significant money-losing endeavor. While the dream of unboxing a rare knife is enticing, the probabilities are heavily stacked against you. This calculator helps you make informed decisions by quantifying the expected financial outcome.