ASCVD 10-Year Risk Calculator
Estimate your 10-year risk of developing Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) using the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations. This calculator is intended for individuals aged 20-79 years without a history of ASCVD, diabetes, or very high LDL-C (≥190 mg/dL).
function calculateASCVD() {
var age = parseFloat(document.getElementById('age').value);
var sex = document.getElementById('sex').value;
var race = document.getElementById('race').value;
var totalCholesterol = parseFloat(document.getElementById('totalCholesterol').value);
var hdlCholesterol = parseFloat(document.getElementById('hdlCholesterol').value);
var sbp = parseFloat(document.getElementById('sbp').value);
var onHypertensionTreatment = document.getElementById('onHypertensionTreatment').checked;
var diabetic = document.getElementById('diabetic').checked;
var smoker = document.getElementById('smoker').checked;
// Input validation
if (isNaN(age) || age 79 ||
isNaN(totalCholesterol) || totalCholesterol 320 ||
isNaN(hdlCholesterol) || hdlCholesterol 100 ||
isNaN(sbp) || sbp 200) {
document.getElementById('result').innerHTML = "Please enter valid numbers for all fields within the specified ranges.";
return;
}
// Coefficients and baseline survival values for Pooled Cohort Equations (ACC/AHA 2013)
var coeffs = {};
if (sex === 'male' && race === 'white') {
coeffs = {
ln_age: 12.344,
ln_total_chol: 11.853,
ln_hdl_chol: -2.664,
ln_sbp_untreated: 1.797,
ln_sbp_treated: 1.764,
diabetes: 0.658,
smoker: 7.837,
mean_lp: 61.18,
s_10: 0.9144
};
} else if (sex === 'female' && race === 'white') {
coeffs = {
ln_age: -29.799,
ln_total_chol: 13.540,
ln_hdl_chol: -1.951,
ln_sbp_untreated: 2.013,
ln_sbp_treated: 1.957,
diabetes: 0.659,
smoker: 7.574,
mean_lp: 29.18, // Corrected from -0.000
s_10: 0.9665
};
} else if (sex === 'male' && race === 'african_american') {
coeffs = {
ln_age: 2.469,
ln_total_chol: 0.302,
ln_hdl_chol: -0.297,
ln_sbp_untreated: 0.482,
ln_sbp_treated: 0.556,
diabetes: 0.627,
smoker: 0.523,
mean_lp: 19.54,
s_10: 0.8954
};
} else if (sex === 'female' && race === 'african_american') {
coeffs = {
ln_age: 17.114,
ln_total_chol: 0.940,
ln_hdl_chol: -18.920,
ln_sbp_untreated: 27.820,
ln_sbp_treated: 27.610,
diabetes: 0.640,
smoker: 0.521,
mean_lp: 86.61,
s_10: 0.9533
};
} else {
document.getElementById('result').innerHTML = "Invalid sex or race selection. Please choose from the available options.";
return;
}
// Calculate sum of predictors (LP)
var sum_of_predictors =
(Math.log(age) * coeffs.ln_age) +
(Math.log(totalCholesterol) * coeffs.ln_total_chol) +
(Math.log(hdlCholesterol) * coeffs.ln_hdl_chol);
if (onHypertensionTreatment) {
sum_of_predictors += (Math.log(sbp) * coeffs.ln_sbp_treated);
} else {
sum_of_predictors += (Math.log(sbp) * coeffs.ln_sbp_untreated);
}
if (diabetic) {
sum_of_predictors += coeffs.diabetes;
}
if (smoker) {
sum_of_predictors += coeffs.smoker;
}
// Calculate 10-year ASCVD risk
var risk_exponent = Math.exp(sum_of_predictors – coeffs.mean_lp);
var risk = (1 – Math.pow(coeffs.s_10, risk_exponent)) * 100;
var resultText = "Your estimated 10-year ASCVD risk is:
" + risk.toFixed(1) + "%.";
if (risk >= 20) {
resultText += "This indicates a
High Risk. It is strongly recommended to consult your healthcare provider for immediate and personalized advice on risk reduction strategies.";
} else if (risk >= 7.5) {
resultText += "This indicates an
Elevated Risk. Discuss with your healthcare provider about lifestyle changes and potential interventions, such as statin therapy.";
} else if (risk >= 5) {
resultText += "This indicates an
Intermediate Risk. Lifestyle modifications are crucial. Consult your healthcare provider to discuss your individual risk factors and management options.";
} else {
resultText += "This indicates a
Lower Risk. Continue healthy lifestyle habits and regular medical check-ups to maintain cardiovascular health.";
}
document.getElementById('result').innerHTML = resultText;
}
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Understanding ASCVD and Your Risk
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) refers to a group of conditions caused by atherosclerosis, a process where plaque builds up inside your arteries. This plaque can harden and narrow your arteries, limiting the flow of oxygen-rich blood to your organs and other parts of your body. ASCVD can lead to serious health problems, including heart attack, stroke, peripheral artery disease, and even death.
Why Calculate Your ASCVD Risk?
Knowing your 10-year ASCVD risk is a crucial step in preventing these life-threatening events. The American College of Cardiology (ACC) and the American Heart Association (AHA) developed the Pooled Cohort Equations to estimate this risk. This calculator helps you and your healthcare provider make informed decisions about lifestyle changes and potential medical interventions, such as statin therapy, to lower your risk.
How the Calculator Works (ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations)
This calculator uses the validated ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations, which consider several key risk factors to predict your likelihood of experiencing a first ASCVD event (e.g., heart attack or stroke) within the next 10 years. The inputs include:
- Age: Risk generally increases with age.
- Sex: Men typically have a higher risk than women at younger ages.
- Race: The equations provide specific coefficients for White and African American individuals, as risk profiles can differ.
- Total Cholesterol & HDL Cholesterol: High total cholesterol and low "good" HDL cholesterol are indicators of increased risk.
- Systolic Blood Pressure: High blood pressure puts strain on your arteries. The calculator accounts for whether you are on medication for hypertension.
- Diabetic Status: Diabetes significantly increases ASCVD risk.
- Smoker Status: Smoking is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease.
The calculator combines these factors using a complex statistical model to generate a personalized risk percentage.
Interpreting Your Results
The output of the calculator is your estimated 10-year risk percentage. Here's a general guide to interpretation:
- Low Risk (<5%): Continue to maintain a healthy lifestyle, including a balanced diet, regular exercise, and avoiding smoking. Regular check-ups are still important.
- Intermediate Risk (5% to <7.5%): Lifestyle modifications are strongly encouraged. Discuss with your doctor if additional interventions, such as statin therapy, might be beneficial based on other individual factors.
- Elevated Risk (7.5% to <20%): Lifestyle changes are critical. Your healthcare provider will likely recommend statin therapy to lower your cholesterol and reduce your risk.
- High Risk (≥20%): Aggressive risk reduction strategies are typically recommended, including intensive lifestyle changes and statin therapy. Close monitoring by your doctor is essential.
Important Note: This calculator is a screening tool and should not replace professional medical advice. It is designed for individuals aged 20-79 who do NOT have a history of ASCVD, diabetes, or very high LDL-C (≥190 mg/dL). Always consult with your healthcare provider to discuss your individual risk factors and the most appropriate management plan for you.