Arbitrage Betting Calculator

Use this calculator to identify arbitrage opportunities in sports betting. Enter the decimal odds from two different bookmakers for opposing outcomes of an event, along with your total desired stake, to see if a guaranteed profit can be made.

Odds for Outcome 1 (Decimal): Odds for Outcome 2 (Decimal): Total Stake Amount:

Understanding Arbitrage Betting

Arbitrage betting, often referred to as "surebetting," is a strategy used in sports betting to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome of an event. This is achieved by placing proportional bets on all possible outcomes of an event with different bookmakers, exploiting discrepancies in their odds.

How Arbitrage Works

Bookmakers set their odds independently, and sometimes, due to various factors like market movements, differing opinions, or competitive pricing, their odds for the same event can create an imbalance. When the implied probabilities of all outcomes, derived from the odds offered by different bookmakers, sum up to less than 100% (or 1.0 in decimal terms), an arbitrage opportunity exists.

For example, if Bookmaker A offers odds of 2.10 for Team A to win, and Bookmaker B offers odds of 1.95 for Team B to win (in a two-way market like tennis or a draw-no-bet football match), you might find an arbitrage. The calculator helps you determine if such an opportunity exists and how much to stake on each outcome to secure a profit.

The Math Behind It

The core of arbitrage betting lies in calculating the implied probability for each outcome:

Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds

If you sum the implied probabilities for all outcomes, and the total is less than 1 (or 100%), you have an arbitrage. The lower the sum, the higher the potential profit percentage.

Once an arbitrage is identified, the calculator then determines the precise stake for each outcome to ensure an equal return regardless of which outcome wins. This proportional staking is crucial for guaranteeing profit.

Using the Arbitrage Betting Calculator

Enter Odds for Outcome 1: Find the best decimal odds for one outcome from a bookmaker.
Enter Odds for Outcome 2: Find the best decimal odds for the opposing outcome from a different bookmaker.
Enter Total Stake Amount: Decide the total amount of money you wish to bet across both outcomes.
Click "Calculate Arbitrage": The calculator will then display the arbitrage percentage, the required stake for each outcome, your guaranteed return, and your guaranteed profit.

Example Scenario:

Let's say you find the following odds for a tennis match:

Bookmaker A: Player 1 to Win = 2.10
Bookmaker B: Player 2 to Win = 1.95
Your Total Stake: $100

Using the calculator:

Implied Probability (Player 1) = 1 / 2.10 = 0.47619
Implied Probability (Player 2) = 1 / 1.95 = 0.51282
Total Implied Probability = 0.47619 + 0.51282 = 0.98901

Since 0.98901 is less than 1, an arbitrage exists. The calculator would then show:

Arbitrage Percentage: Approximately 1.11%
Stake for Outcome 1 (Player 1): Approximately $48.15
Stake for Outcome 2 (Player 2): Approximately $51.85
Guaranteed Return: Approximately $101.11
Guaranteed Profit: Approximately $1.11

This means if you bet $48.15 on Player 1 with Bookmaker A and $51.85 on Player 2 with Bookmaker B, you are guaranteed to win around $1.11, regardless of who wins the match.

Risks and Considerations

While arbitrage betting sounds like a foolproof way to profit, it comes with risks:

Odds Changes: Odds can change rapidly. An arbitrage opportunity might disappear before you can place all your bets.
Bet Limits: Bookmakers may limit your stake, preventing you from placing the full required amount on one side of the arbitrage.
Account Restrictions: Bookmakers are aware of arbitrage betting and may restrict or close accounts of users consistently engaging in it.
Human Error: Miscalculating stakes or placing bets on the wrong outcome or with incorrect odds can lead to losses.
Voided Bets: Rarely, a bookmaker might void a bet due to an "obvious error" in their odds, which can leave you exposed on the other side of the arbitrage.

Always exercise caution and understand the terms and conditions of the bookmakers you are using.

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