function calculatePokerChance() {
var numOutsInput = document.getElementById("numOuts");
var playerHandCardsInput = document.getElementById("playerHandCards");
var communityCardsInput = document.getElementById("communityCards");
var streetsToComeInput = document.getElementById("streetsToCome");
var numOuts = parseFloat(numOutsInput.value);
var playerHandCards = parseFloat(playerHandCardsInput.value);
var communityCards = parseFloat(communityCardsInput.value);
var streetsToCome = parseFloat(streetsToComeInput.value);
var numOutsError = document.getElementById("numOutsError");
var playerHandCardsError = document.getElementById("playerHandCardsError");
var communityCardsError = document.getElementById("communityCardsError");
var resultElement = document.getElementById("pokerChanceResult");
numOutsError.textContent = "";
playerHandCardsError.textContent = "";
communityCardsError.textContent = "";
resultElement.textContent = "0.00%";
var isValid = true;
if (isNaN(numOuts) || numOuts 20) { // Max outs typically around 20 (e.g., open-ended straight flush draw)
numOutsError.textContent = "Please enter a valid number of outs (0-20).";
isValid = false;
}
if (isNaN(playerHandCards) || playerHandCards 2) {
playerHandCardsError.textContent = "Please enter 0, 1, or 2 for cards in hand.";
isValid = false;
}
if (isNaN(communityCards) || communityCards 5) {
communityCardsError.textContent = "Please enter 0-5 for community cards.";
isValid = false;
}
if (!isValid) {
return;
}
var cardsKnown = playerHandCards + communityCards;
var remainingDeckCards = 52 – cardsKnown;
if (remainingDeckCards remainingDeckCards) {
numOutsError.textContent = "Outs cannot exceed remaining unknown cards (" + remainingDeckCards + ").";
isValid = false;
}
if (cardsKnown > 50) { // Max cards known is 2 (hand) + 5 (board) = 7. 52-7 = 45 remaining.
playerHandCardsError.textContent = "Too many cards known. Check inputs.";
isValid = false;
}
if (!isValid) {
return;
}
var probability = 0;
if (streetsToCome === 1) {
// Calculating for one card (e.g., turn to river)
probability = (numOuts / remainingDeckCards) * 100;
} else if (streetsToCome === 2) {
// Calculating for two cards (e.g., flop to river)
// P(hit on either) = 1 – P(miss on turn AND miss on river)
// P(miss on turn) = (remainingDeckCards – numOuts) / remainingDeckCards
// P(miss on river | missed turn) = (remainingDeckCards – 1 – numOuts) / (remainingDeckCards – 1)
if (remainingDeckCards – 1 <= 0) { // Edge case for very few cards left
resultElement.textContent = "Error: Not enough cards for two streets.";
return;
}
var probMissTurn = (remainingDeckCards – numOuts) / remainingDeckCards;
var probMissRiverIfMissTurn = (remainingDeckCards – 1 – numOuts) / (remainingDeckCards – 1);
var probMissBoth = probMissTurn * probMissRiverIfMissTurn;
probability = (1 – probMissBoth) * 100;
}
resultElement.textContent = probability.toFixed(2) + "%";
}
Understanding Poker Chances
In poker, especially games like Texas Hold'em, understanding your "outs" and calculating your chances of hitting them is crucial for making informed decisions. An "out" is any card that will significantly improve your hand, often turning a drawing hand into a strong made hand.
What are "Outs"?
Outs are the unseen cards remaining in the deck that, if dealt, would improve your hand to a winning or strong hand. For example:
Flush Draw: If you have four cards of the same suit (e.g., two in your hand, two on the board), there are 9 remaining cards of that suit in the deck (13 total cards of a suit – 4 seen = 9 outs).
Open-Ended Straight Draw: If you have four cards in a row (e.g., 5-6-7-8), you can complete a straight with a 4 or a 9. There are four 4s and four 9s in the deck, giving you 8 outs.
Gutshot Straight Draw: If you have four cards with a gap in the middle (e.g., 5-7-8-9), only one rank completes your straight (a 6 in this case). There are four 6s in the deck, giving you 4 outs.
Set/Trips: If you have a pair in your hand and one of those cards appears on the flop, you have a set. If you have one card in your hand and two on the board, you have trips. If you have a pair and want to hit a third card, there are 2 outs remaining.
You can combine outs. For instance, if you have both a flush draw (9 outs) and an open-ended straight draw (8 outs), but two of the straight outs are also flush outs (e.g., the 4 of hearts and 9 of hearts), you subtract the duplicates: 9 + 8 – 2 = 15 outs.
How the Calculator Works
This calculator uses a more precise method than the common "Rule of 2 and 4" to determine your probability of hitting one of your outs. It takes into account:
Number of Outs: The cards that will improve your hand.
Cards in Your Hand: Typically 2 in Texas Hold'em.
Community Cards on Board: 3 on the flop, 4 on the turn.
Streets Remaining: Whether you're calculating for just the next card (turn to river) or for two cards (flop to river).
The calculation is based on the number of unknown cards remaining in the deck. For one street, it's simply (Outs / Unknown Cards) * 100. For two streets, it calculates the probability of *not* hitting an out on either the turn or the river, and then subtracts that from 100% to find the probability of hitting at least one out.
Example Usage:
Imagine you're playing Texas Hold'em:
You hold: A♥ K♥
The Flop is: J♥ T♥ 2♣
You have a flush draw (9 outs for any heart) and an open-ended straight draw (4 Queens, 4 Nines). Two of the Queens and Nines are hearts, so they are already counted in your flush outs. So, you have 9 flush outs + 2 non-heart Queens + 2 non-heart Nines = 13 outs.
Number of Outs: 13
Cards in Your Hand: 2
Community Cards on Board: 3
Streets Remaining: 2 (for turn and river)
Input these values into the calculator to see your precise chance of hitting your hand by the river!