Calculate distance, probability, and difficulty based on yard line position
Game Parameters
Enter the yard line where the line of scrimmage is set.
Opponent's Side (Inside 50)
Own Side (Behind 50)
Standard NFL/College depth is 7-8 yards behind scrimmage.
NFL Elite (Justin Tucker tier)
NFL Average
College/NCAA
High School
Kick Analysis
Official Field Goal Distance
0 Yds
–%Est. Success Rate
—Difficulty Rating
Enter parameters to see analysis.
Understanding Field Goal Math
In American football, the "official" distance of a field goal is not simply the yard line where the offense is stopped. To calculate the true kicking distance, three components must be added together:
The End Zone Depth: The goal posts are located at the back of the end zone, which adds a standard 10 yards to every kick.
The Hold Distance: The ball is snapped backward to the holder. In the modern NFL and NCAA, this is typically 7 to 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage.
The Yard Line: The distance from the goal line to the line of scrimmage.
The Golden Formula:
FG Distance = (Yard Line) + 10 (End Zone) + 8 (Hold) ≈ Yard Line + 18
Success Probability Factors
While distance is the primary factor in field goal success, statistical analysis of thousands of NFL and NCAA kicks reveals specific tiers of difficulty:
1. The "Chip Shot" (Inside 30 Yards)
Kicks under 30 yards (line of scrimmage at the 12 or closer) have a success rate exceeding 98% in the NFL. These are considered routine, and a miss is usually due to a bad snap or hold rather than the kicker's ability.
2. The "Automatic" Zone (30-39 Yards)
From 30 to 39 yards, NFL kickers maintain a success rate of approximately 92-95%. This is the expected range for professional kickers to convert consistently.
3. The Reliability Drop-off (40-49 Yards)
Once the distance crosses 40 yards, variables like wind, surface condition, and trajectory angles become significant. The league average success rate hovers around 75-80% for this range.
4. The 50+ Yard Barrier
Kicks of 50 yards or more require significant leg strength and lower trajectory, making them susceptible to being blocked or influenced by wind. Success rates drop to approximately 60-65%, though elite kickers maintain higher averages.
Historical Context
The NFL record for the longest field goal is 66 yards, set by Justin Tucker of the Baltimore Ravens in 2021. This kick required the ball to be snapped from the opponent's 56-yard line (own 44-yard line). For a high school kicker, anything over 40 yards is considered an exceptional feat.
function calculateFieldGoal() {
// 1. Get Inputs
var yardLineInput = document.getElementById('yardLine').value;
var fieldSide = document.getElementById('fieldSide').value;
var holdDepth = document.getElementById('holdDepth').value;
var kickerSkill = document.getElementById('kickerSkill').value;
// 2. Validate Inputs
if (yardLineInput === "" || isNaN(yardLineInput)) {
alert("Please enter a valid yard line number.");
return;
}
var yardLine = parseFloat(yardLineInput);
var hold = parseFloat(holdDepth);
if (yardLine 99) {
alert("Yard line must be between 1 and 99.");
return;
}
// 3. Calculate Distance
// Formula:
// If Opponent side (e.g., Opp 30): Distance = 30 + 10 (Endzone) + Hold
// If Own side (e.g., Own 40): Distance = (50 – 40) + 50 + 10 + Hold = 110 – 40 + Hold?
// Actually: Own 40 means 60 yards to goal line. 60 + 10 + Hold.
var distanceToGoalLine = 0;
if (fieldSide === 'opp') {
// Opponent side. Example: Opp 20. Distance to goal is 20.
distanceToGoalLine = yardLine;
} else {
// Own side. Example: Own 40. Distance to goal is (50-40) + 50 = 60.
// Or simpler: 100 – YardLine.
distanceToGoalLine = 100 – yardLine;
}
var totalKickDistance = distanceToGoalLine + 10 + hold;
// 4. Calculate Probability
// Base logic on approximate NFL regressions
var probability = 0;
// Base NFL Stats
if (totalKickDistance <= 20) probability = 99.5;
else if (totalKickDistance <= 30) probability = 98;
else if (totalKickDistance <= 40) probability = 92;
else if (totalKickDistance <= 50) probability = 80; // Linear drop 40-50
else if (totalKickDistance <= 60) probability = 60; // Steep drop 50-60
else if (totalKickDistance 40 && totalKickDistance 50 && totalKickDistance 60) {
var diff = totalKickDistance – 60;
probability = 60 – (diff * 6); // Drops very fast
if(probability 100) probability = 99.9;
// Tucker can hit 66, so give boost at long range
if (totalKickDistance > 60 && totalKickDistance 50) probability -= 20; // Big drop off for college 50+
} else if (kickerSkill === 'hs') {
probability -= 30;
if (totalKickDistance > 40) probability = 10; // Very rare for HS
if (totalKickDistance > 45) probability = 1;
}
if (probability 35) difficulty = "Moderate";
if (totalKickDistance > 45) difficulty = "Hard";
if (totalKickDistance > 55) difficulty = "Very Hard";
if (totalKickDistance > 60) difficulty = "Extreme";
if (totalKickDistance > 66) difficulty = "Record Breaking";
// 6. Generate Context Message
var message = "";
if (totalKickDistance > 66) {
message = "This attempt would exceed the current NFL record of 66 yards held by Justin Tucker.";
} else if (totalKickDistance >= 60) {
message = "A kick of this distance is rarely attempted. It requires perfect conditions and an elite leg.";
} else if (totalKickDistance >= 50) {
message = "This is the range where games are often decided. Success is a coin flip for average kickers.";
} else {
message = "This distance is expected to be made consistently by professional kickers.";
}
// 7. Display Results
document.getElementById('displayDistance').innerHTML = totalKickDistance + " Yards";
document.getElementById('displayProbability').innerText = Math.round(probability) + "%";
document.getElementById('displayDifficulty').innerText = difficulty;
document.getElementById('contextMessage').innerText = message;
// Show box
document.getElementById('resultBox').style.display = "block";
// Animate Bar
var bar = document.getElementById('probBar');
// Reset width to force animation restart
bar.style.width = "0%";
setTimeout(function() {
bar.style.width = probability + "%";
// Color coding based on probability
if(probability > 80) bar.style.background = "#4CAF50"; // Green
else if(probability > 50) bar.style.background = "#ffeb3b"; // Yellow
else bar.style.background = "#f44336"; // Red
}, 100);
}