Poker Possibility Calculator
Use this calculator to determine the probability of hitting your "outs" in Texas Hold'em, either on the next card (turn or river) or over two cards (turn and river).
Enter the number of cards remaining in the deck that will improve your hand (e.g., 9 for a flush draw, 8 for an open-ended straight draw).
Typically 5 after the flop (2 hole cards + 3 flop cards) or 6 after the turn (2 hole cards + 4 community cards).
Understanding Poker Possibilities: Your Edge at the Table
In the strategic world of poker, particularly Texas Hold'em, understanding probabilities is not just an advantage—it's a necessity. The Poker Possibility Calculator helps players quickly assess their chances of improving their hand, a critical factor in making informed decisions about betting, calling, or folding.
What are "Outs" in Poker?
An "out" is any card remaining in the deck that will improve your current hand to a likely winning hand. For example:
- If you have four cards to a flush (e.g., you hold A♠ K♠ and the flop is 7♠ 2♠ J♦), there are 9 spades left in the deck (13 total spades – 4 already seen). So, you have 9 outs for a flush.
- If you have an open-ended straight draw (e.g., you hold 6♦ 7♣ and the flop is 4♥ 5♠ K♣), any 3 or 8 will complete your straight. There are four 3s and four 8s in the deck, giving you 8 outs.
- A "gutshot" straight draw (e.g., you hold 6♦ 8♣ and the flop is 4♥ 5♠ K♣, needing a 7) gives you 4 outs.
Accurately counting your outs is the first step to using any poker probability calculator effectively.
Why Calculate Poker Possibilities?
Knowing your chances of hitting an out helps you determine your "pot odds" – the ratio of the money in the pot to the cost of your call. If your pot odds are better than your chances of hitting your hand, it's often a profitable call in the long run. Conversely, if your chances are slim and the bet is large, folding might be the best option.
This calculator provides two key probabilities:
- Probability on the next card (Turn or River): This tells you your chances of hitting your hand with just one more card to come. This is useful when facing a bet on the flop (calculating for the turn) or on the turn (calculating for the river).
- Probability over two cards (Turn AND River): This calculates your chances of hitting your hand if both the turn and river cards are yet to be dealt. This is crucial when deciding whether to call a bet on the flop with two cards still to come.
How the Calculator Works (The Math Behind It)
The calculator uses basic probability principles. A standard deck has 52 cards. When you're calculating probabilities, you subtract the cards you know (your hole cards and the community cards) from the total deck to find the number of unknown cards remaining.
- For one card: The probability is simply (Number of Outs / Number of Cards Remaining) * 100%.
- For two cards: This is slightly more complex. It's easier to calculate the probability of *not* hitting your hand on either the turn or the river, and then subtract that from 100%.
- Probability of NOT hitting on the turn = (Cards Remaining – Outs) / Cards Remaining
- Probability of NOT hitting on the river (given you missed on the turn) = (Cards Remaining – Outs – 1) / (Cards Remaining – 1)
- Probability of NOT hitting on either = (Probability of NOT hitting on turn) * (Probability of NOT hitting on river)
- Probability of hitting at least once = 1 – (Probability of NOT hitting on either) * 100%
Practical Examples:
Let's consider a few common scenarios:
- Flush Draw on the Flop: You have 9 outs (e.g., 4 cards to a flush). After the flop, 5 cards are known (2 hole + 3 flop). So, 52 – 5 = 47 cards remaining.
- Probability on the next card (Turn): (9 / 47) * 100% = 19.15%
- Probability over two cards (Turn AND River): 34.97%
- Open-Ended Straight Draw on the Flop: You have 8 outs. 47 cards remaining.
- Probability on the next card (Turn): (8 / 47) * 100% = 17.02%
- Probability over two cards (Turn AND River): 31.45%
- Gutshot Straight Draw on the Flop: You have 4 outs. 47 cards remaining.
- Probability on the next card (Turn): (4 / 47) * 100% = 8.51%
- Probability over two cards (Turn AND River): 16.47%
- Set on the Turn (one card to come): You have 1 out (the last card of your set). After the turn, 6 cards are known (2 hole + 4 community). So, 52 – 6 = 46 cards remaining.
- Probability on the next card (River): (1 / 46) * 100% = 2.17%
- Probability over two cards (N/A, only one card left): 2.17%
By using this calculator, you can quickly get a precise understanding of your chances, helping you make more confident and profitable decisions at the poker table.